Elections Matter

Democratic governance is about more than calling elections and it is about more than casting votes. Democratic governance encompasses a wider landscape of rights including factors such as the rule of law, freedom of expression, accountability of institutions and transparency of elected leaders. And when it comes to elections, it also includes the freedom to vote for your preferred candidate without fear of recrimination from the state.

In the UK, we accept these conditions as standard. A quick glance through history and indeed a quick glance around the world today, reveals that we stand among the privileged.

Glance through history - quoteThe former Soviet Union countries held elections for decades. Invariably these elections produced the same results. As John Feffer points out, the Communist Party candidates—or their close allies—won the elections often by farcical margins of 99.9%. Feffer observes the near-upset in 1980 when the Party in Hungary won with only 99.3 per cent of the vote!

While holding elections is a vital ingredient of a healthy democracy, it is only part of the whole recipe. This is evidenced by countries such as Zimbabwe, Azerbaijan, Sudan, and Kazakhstan, all of whom hold elections but none of whom are categorised as full and free democracies. Despite these exceptions, elections, when they are genuinely free and fair, represent a vital pillar of the democratic system.

The Freedom in the World report by Freedom House ranks nations on the condition of political rights and civil liberties. In their 2014 report, Freedom House categorise 48 countries as “Not Free”. This represents a quarter of all countries in the world and includes nearly 2.5 billion people, or 35 percent of the global population (though Freedom House point out that more than half of this number lives in just one country: China).

The good news is that the number of electoral democracies around the world has risen over the last 25 years. This year, the number of electoral democracies stood at 122, four more than in 2012. The four countries that achieved electoral democracy status were Honduras, Kenya, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Percentage of countries that are electoral democraciesAnd so, while one-third of the world’s population do not benefit from the right to self determination, many of those who do seem to take it for granted. In the UK a huge number of the electorate has disengaged with the electoral process. At the last general election in May 2010, voter turn-out was 65% meaning that over one-third of eligible voters were so unmoved by the choices before them they opted to stay at home instead of exercising their right to choose who governs them. 

Voter apathy is no doubt linked to the behaviour of our elected politicians who must bear some, if not most, of the responsibility. The expenses scandal followed by some high profile criminal cases such as that of Lib Dem MP Chris Huhne caused a lot of damage to politicians’ already fragile reputations. While it is true to say that the vast majority of British MPs from all parties are honest, committed, and hard-working, public perception is undoubtedly swayed by the exceptional cases.

So how should we respond? Today is election day in the UK—local and European. One way to respond is to re-engage with the democratic system. When respect for the political process falls, the best response is to pick it up and hold it high. We can blame politicians if we want. We can even try to blame the system itself. But in a democracy it is us, ultimately, who have the power to make a change. And that is what makes democracy by far the best form of governance ever devised.

Or to consider the same from the opposite angle, as Winston Churchill famously observed: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”

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This post first appeared on the Legatum Institute blog: http://www.li.com/blog/legatum-institute/2014/05/22/elections-matter
Graph source: Freedom House

Euthanasia: The Slippery Slope is Real

Earlier this month King Philippe of Belgium signed a law that extends euthanasia to children. His confirmation of the new law comes after both houses of the Belgian parliament overwhelmingly approved the controversial measures. The most recent vote, in Belgium’s lower house, produced a clear majority in favour of the law (86 votes to 44).

syringeEuthanasia is nothing new for Belgians. The process, whereby a doctor injects a lethal drug into a patient, has been legal for adults since 2002. The ‘safeguards’ in their law specify that an adult only qualifies for euthanasia if their illness is incurable and their suffering is unbearable. But a closer look at some recent cases shows that these guidelines are interpreted very loosely.

In September Nathan Verhelst was legally euthanased after his sex-change operation went wrong leaving him with “unbearable psychological suffering”. In December, deaf twin brothers Marc and Eddy Verbessem, who were beginning to go blind, were legally euthanased claiming they couldn’t bear the thought of not being able to see each other again. Now, terminally ill children in Belgium can request euthanasia with parental consent.

These developments represent a clear case of a “slippery slope” whereby small, incremental changes have morphed the original law into something much broader – and more dangerous – than was ever intended.

In the UK there is currently a serious attempt to legalise “assisted dying”. The former Lord Chancellor, Charles Falconer, has introduced legislation that would license doctors to supply lethal drugs to the terminally ill to assist their suicide.  His Bill is backed by the campaigning organisation Dignity in Dying (formally the Voluntary Euthanasia Society).

Parliament has debated and rejected this issue on many occasions over the last ten years. This time, however, in order to make the measures appear more palatable, Lord Falconer and Dignity in Dying will emphasise the ‘safeguards’ contained in the bill that would limit assisted suicide to those who are terminally ill with a prognosis of six months or less to live.

But these safeguards – much like those in the Belgian law – won’t work. For starters, prognosis for terminal illness is impossible to predict accurately and the scope for error can extend into years.  The truth is that no safeguards will be failsafe.  Even Lord Falconer himself conceded this point when he discussed his proposal on Radio 4’s Today Programme, saying: “I don’t think you can ever have a system that is completely watertight…you can’t be sure [that safeguards will work].

This should set the alarm bells ringing. Perhaps if we were discussing regulations on food packaging we could play the averages. But we are not. This is life and death. Being cautious is not merely advisable, it is vital. When the person sponsoring the law admits the safeguards can’t be watertight, it’s time to think again.

Beyond the legal questions, assisted suicide prompts serious questions about the nature of healthcare. At the heart of the doctor-patient relationship is the understanding that a doctor’s primary duty is to care for and protect his patients. Regardless of the situation, a patient must know that his/her doctor will first and foremost seek to do only what is in the patient’s best interests.

That is why the major medical bodies – the Royal College of Physicians, the Royal College of General Practitioners, the Royal College of Psychiatrists and the British Medical Association – all oppose legalising assisted suicide. As The College of Physicians stated explicitly, a doctor’s duty of care for patients “does not include being in any way part of their suicide“.  What’s more, opinion surveys among medical professionals regularly find at least two-thirds against assisted suicide.

Advocates of assisted suicide refuse to admit the real risk of extension. Claims on the Dignity in Dying website state that, “the slippery slope argument lacks evidence and is illogical” and that it does not stand up as “an argument of any real value.” In light of the evidence from Belgium, it’s now hard to see how this response can stand up.

Evidence from Belgium shows exactly how quickly a law, supposedly limited to terminally ill adults, is rapidly extended to any age and any prognosis. Such a law does not extend choice in healthcare or drive up standards of care, nor does it empower patients. Looking at Belgium, the vulnerable are less protected and ending life has become normalised.

As we continue to debate the issue of assisted suicide in the UK, we should be mindful of the Belgian example where the legal ‘safeguards’ are interpreted loosely and the scope of the law has been broadened far beyond its original intent. The slippery slope is very real.

Recent Media Coverage

Nathan Gamester - Prosperity Index 2013 cropped

Over the last few weeks I have spoken to many journalists about the latest edition of the Prosperity Index. The global coverage has been extensive and so a full run down would be difficult. However, I thought I’d pull together a selection of articles either that I’ve authored or in which I’m quoted.

  • Four Major Changes to Global Prosperity
    Harvard Business Review (link)

It was Abraham Maslow who gave us that famous observation — “when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”  We all understand the implication: Anyone attempting to solve an ambiguous problem should start out in possession of a broad set of tools. It is curious, then, that we continue to fall into the trap of…

  • How Prosperous is the United States?  
    Foreign Policy, Democracy Lab (link)

The results are in! The Legatum Institute has just launched the 2013 Prosperity Index, a broad measurement of national success that looks beyond GDP. Norway tops the rankings (for the fifth year running) followed by Switzerland in second place and Canada in third. The United States ranks outside the top ten, placing 11th overall…

Continue reading

Five Things Cameron Should Include in His Conference Speech

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron delivers his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference in BirminghamA few thoughts on what I think David Cameron should include in his speech to the Conservative Party Conference this week…

1)      Staying the course on deficit reduction

One of David Cameron’s strategic successes in the lead up to the last election was to secure a mandate for austerity. He stood before the country and said that times were going to be hard, that we had a huge debt, and that the economy was not growing. And he explained that the only sensible response when facing huge debt is to reduce spending, which means everyone has to tighten their belts. With reduced spending, economic growth would return and prosperity would increase. Of course the return to growth has been slower than predicted. But the economy is now growing and unemployment is going down (it’s lower now than when Mr Cameron took office in May 2010). Now is not the time to go wobbly on the economic plan and risk the progress that has been made.

2)      Defend the 45p income tax rate

Labour loves to denounce the government’s “tax cut for millionaires”. But the evidence suggests that the 45p tax rate for the highest earners has actually brought in more revenue than the 50p rate. That’s more money to spend on those who need it most. More money for childcare, hospitals, infrastructure, etc. By opposing this policy, Labour is saying that they would rather punish the rich than help the poor. Mr Cameron needs to challenge Labour on their narrative about the “tax cut for millionaires” and explain why the 45p rate makes good economic sense. Right now Labour are winning the argument because they are shouting the loudest.

3)      Announce that marriage will be recognised in the tax system

It’s high time Cameron made good on his longstanding promise to recognise marriage in the tax system. This was a Conservative manifesto commitment, it was in the Coalition Agreement, and Cameron has said on numerous occasions he still intends to do it. Next week he should announce exactly when and how he’ll introduce it. To his credit, Cameron has always been an advocate for strong marriage and strong families. Over the last few years, however, all the political discussion around marriage has focussed on gay marriage (much to the despair of many conservatives). Earlier this year I asked Treasury Minister Greg Clark about this issue and he assured me that it is still in the government’s plans during this parliament. But time is fast running out.

4)      Recognise that Miliband has the right diagnosis but the wrong prescription

The “cost of living crisis” that Ed Miliband described is a powerful message. It will play very well on the doorsteps and during the campaign. Mr Cameron must acknowledge this problem but set out a different solution. Many people are experiencing a cost of living crisis. Part of the solution is to ask people to keep tightening their belts as the economic recovery continues. Another part of the solution is to set out clearer policies for helping those on low incomes (like taking more low earners out of the income tax). Another part of the solution is to encourage greater competition between energy providers so that bills don’t rise sharply. But Mr Cameron should be very clear that you certainly can’t solve the problem by legislating to prevent energy firms from raising their prices (the unintended consequences of which have been discussed in detail). 

5)      Be Positive.

Finally, the tone of Mr Cameron’s speech is very important. To those on the left, Ed Miliband’s speech was spot on in both content and tone. Where necessary Mr Cameron should rebut Labour proposals. But overall he should set out a positive, clear message outlining his vision for Britain. And he should highlight the government’s successes. There is much to be proud of: lifting more than 2 million low earners out of tax altogether; reforming the welfare system to make work pay more than benefits; bringing rigour back into the education system; opening 93 new free schools at the start of this new school year alone; a benefits cap to ensure that claimants won’t receive more than the average family earns; vaccinating, educating, and feeding millions of the world’s poorest people by sticking to the overseas aid commitment; and the list goes on.

These five are just a few that came to mind and are in no particular order of importance. I hope that at least some of them feature in Mr Cameron’s speech on Wednesday. 

UPDATE 28 Sept: The PM is obviously an avid reader of my blog. Just minutes after I posted he announced plans to give married couples a tax break. One down, four to go…

On International Development Policy

If you are a British taxpayer, then right across the developing world are children who have been vaccinated against a multitude of deadly diseases because of you. Today millions of children are going to school for the first time – because of you. Fewer women are dying in childbirth – because of you. More AIDS sufferers than ever before have access to antiretroviral therapy and are thus living with, rather than dying from, their disease – because of you. British people should be proud of this.

This is an extract from an article I wrote on British International Development policy for ConservativeHome. The article coincides with the launch of a new policy pamphlet authored by Andrew Mitchell MP (published by the Legatum Institute).

I conclude the article by praising Andrew Mitchell and the government for sticking to the promise that they have made to the world’s poor, despite the challenging economic circumstances at home:

Many people who have served in government can take credit for ensuring Britain keeps its promise to the developing world. But perhaps the most significant of those is Andrew Mitchell. Mitchell has been called many things over the last six months, many of these it now appears were untrue. However, his lasting legacy – and perhaps one of this government’s most significant legacies – will be the commitment that is being shown to the world’s very poorest people.

Republicans Can Learn from the CSJ

Commentary CoverBack in February I posted some thoughts on an essay published in Commentary Magazine by Mike Gerson and Peter Wehner called ‘How to Save the Republican Party’. At the time I also submitted a letter to the Editor of Commentary Magazine picking up on the suggestion that the Centre for Social Justice could provide a model for the US.

The letter has now been published in the June 2013 edition of the magazine and I have reprinted it here:

To the Editor:

IN THEIR superb essay, Michael Gerson and Peter Wehner highlight the considerable challenges for Republicans. As the authors state, the current troubles are not simply the result of a communications problem. In some key areas, policy needs updating, too. The big question is how.

In the final section of their essay, Gerson and Wehner suggest that a British think tank, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), could provide the answer for the GOP.

The CSJ has been one of the most influential think tanks in the UK in the last decade. It was founded by the former leader of the Conservative Party (and current secretary of state for work and pensions) Iain Duncan Smith, following his 2002 visit to a deprived housing estate in Glasgow where he saw firsthand the damaging effects of poverty. Duncan Smith and the CSJ focused their work on overcoming the “pathways to poverty”: family breakdown, educational failure, economic dependence, indebtedness, and addictions. What accounted for the CSJ’s success and what can the GOP learn?

First, all findings and recommendations from the CSJ are firmly rooted in evidence, including the use of thorough public polling. The 2007 report Breakthrough Britain, for example, included two waves of polling, which collected the opinions of almost 50,000 people. In an era of pontificating and punditry when evidence can be relegated below opinion, this approach is powerful.

Second, the CSJ is a superb example of how politicians and policymakers can make the most of their time in opposition. The result is that once the Conservatives were back in government, crucial reforms were pre-packaged and ready to go. This gave the party a huge head start on the current welfare reforms that are being introduced in the UK (led by Duncan-Smith).

Third, the CSJ is a conservative organization with conservative beliefs and principles. However, it has never been bound by partisanship or tribalism. When the Labour Party was in government, the CSJ was actively engaged in working together with Labour MPs to see their policies implemented. Perhaps the best example of this approach is seen in the 2008 report Early Intervention, co-written with Labour MP Graham Allen. This report led to all of the main party leaders’ signing up to the new social policy of “Early Intervention.” This willingness to reach across the aisle has given the CSJ a coalition of supporters from different political spheres.

If it is to change in any meaningful way, the Republican Party must resist the temptation to do what many political parties do following defeat: repeat more loudly the same failed policies under the assumption that the people simply didn’t hear the message the first time around.

The Washington D.C. think tank scene is highly competitive. If, however, there is space for one more, modelling it on the Centre for Social Justice would be an excellent starting point. And the good news is that work has already begun at state level. The Georgia Center for Opportunity seems to be following the CSJ model. Perhaps it will be only a matter of time before we see this scaled up to the national level.

Nathan Gamester
Legatum Institute, London

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Commentary Magazine provides space for the authors of the original essay to also post their response to the published letters. Concerning my letter, Mike Gerson and Peter Wehner said this:

And we thank Nathan Gamester for his insightful letter on the Centre for Social Justice. We’re great admirers of the CSJ, and we believe there is much the Republican Party can learn from it.

Parliament, Show Some Class Today

Today Parliament has an opportunity to show some class.

When Parliament returns later today to pay tribute to the life of Margaret Thatcher, there will be some, perhaps many, MPs who will want to speak vigorously in opposition to her policies and her premiership. If conducted respectfully, this should be welcomed. We should always welcome an open and free debate among those who disagree with each other.

A strong democracy relies on the freedom of expression and the British Parliament has always set the standard, globally, for robust debate.

There will, however, be some who will be tempted to attack Lady Thatcher personally. They may wish to step beyond the line of political disagreement and into the realm of personality attacks.

Baroness Thatcher is a former Prime Minister who held some very strong views and divided people’s opinions. But she was also a wife, a mother, and a grandmother. Launching a personal attack on a frail, elderly woman who died only this week and whose family are still in mourning is neither big nor clever. It belittles the person doing it and, more significantly, it belittles our parliament.

Parliament, the world is watching. Show some class today.

Poverty in the UK

A recent FT article describes a child in Liverpool who chews on wallpaper at night to relieve his hunger. He. Chews. On. Wallpaper.

I have no idea how to even process this information. This is England, 2013.

A couple of weeks ago, I was chatting with some friends in their house in a deprived area of Liverpool when they showed me a haunting crayon picture. Drawn by a local child, it featured a large, empty plate with wobbly letters stating baldly: “Do you see any food?”

“There’s a lot of little kids going hungry round here,” explained one friend, who works in a local community centre. Indeed, just the other day she had spoken to a family where the child had been chewing wallpaper at night. “He didn’t want to tell his mum because he knew she didn’t have the money for supper,” she explained. “We hear more and more stories like this.”

Source: Where Austerity Really Hits Home, Gillian Tett, Financial Times

Short-Termism

Short-termismShort-termism is a major hindrance to economic prosperity in the UK, says a new report published today. While I am sure this is true, I would add that short-termism is also a significant hindrance in political life too.

Perhaps one of the best examples of short-termism in politics is found in the campaign slogan of Ronald Reagan during the 1980 Presidential election. One week before the American people went to the polls in 1980, Reagan famously asked: are you better off than you were four years ago?

As a piece of rhetoric this is superb. As a basis for serious political discourse it is not.

While there are, no doubt, some policies that can be assessed after a single term in office, there are many that cannot. This is even more pertinent in times of austerity than in times of plenty.

Transforming the economic performance of a nation is not something that is achieved in a single term (I doubt very much whether it can be achieved in two). Not only is the path uncertain, but along the way it is inevitable that many – if not most – members of the public will be worse off than they were previously.

It’s like paying-off a huge credit card bill whilst expecting to live at the same high standard to which you became accustomed when you were spending all the credit in the first place. There’s only one way to do that: get another credit card and run up more debt, thereby exacerbating the problem and delaying the inevitable repayment.

It’s worrying that Ed Miliband has decided to adopt Reagan’s famous campaign slogan. Not because it is highly effective and will gain traction come election time (it is and it will), but because it ignores the bigger political reality: UK plc has run out of money. This country has huge public sector debt and regardless of who is in power after the next election we cannot keep spending more than we take in.

Asking the electorate if they are better off than they were at the last election is irresponsible. It implies that things can be significantly different under a new regime. The reality is that any government – whether Conservative, Labour, or Coalition – will need to make cutbacks that will be felt by members of the public.

To suggest otherwise is to prioritise short-term political gain over our future economic security.

Dinner with David Frum

DFrumAt the Legatum Institute we recently hosted a dinner featuring David Frum as the guest of honour. The topic of conversation was the future of conservatism (US and UK). Below is a short summary of the evening, which first appeared here

 

“Insult fewer people next time.” This was David Frum’s advice to the Republican Party following its defeat in the 2012 Presidential Election.  While this analysis is no-doubt deliberately facetious it can almost certainly be filed under the “it’s funny because it’s true” category of jokes.

Over dinner at the Legatum Institute David Frum explains that there are three dominant theories circulating inside the Republican Party as to why, in 2012, it lost one of the most winnable elections in modern history. The first, he says, is trivial, the second is false, and the third is pernicious.

Theory number one says that the Republicans were simply caught off guard by a better organised, more social media-friendly Democratic Party. This, of course, may well be true but it is not the reason for defeat. In fact, Frum suggests that the failure to be as well organised as the democrats was more a symptom of defeat rather than a cause.

Theory number two says that the Republican message on immigration was wrong. The Party failed to tailor its message towards non-white voters and ultimately paid the price at the polling stations. Again, there is some truth to this theory but it is not the main reason why the GOP lost in 2012.

The third explanation is that the Republicans were simply the victim of a huge historical tragedy in which the American public made a grave error in not picking the right party. Put another way, the Republicans didn’t lose the election, rather the American people failed in their responsibility to elect the right person! “If the customer doesn’t like what you are selling, that’s not the customer’s problem”, suggest Frum.

While these reasons may provide a partial answer, the primary reason why the Republican Party lost the 2012 election,  explains Frum, was much simpler than that: it did not have a message for middle class Americans. Rather than focussing on immediate issues such as jobs, Republicans instead focussed on a deficit reduction plan, the effects of which will not be seen for 20-30 years. That message, argues Frum, lacks relevance for the middle class American voter.

In a wide ranging discussion on the future of conservatism – on both sides of the Atlantic – David Frum concluded with another piece of advice to conservatives seeking election: to be successful conservatives need to have an inclusive message that is culturally relevant. On top of that, the manner of discussion needs to be more responsible, less socially reactionary, and less rage-filled. On this point he is certainly right. Let’s hope he is listened to.